10 tech trends for 2004

10 tech trends for 2004
By Jon Fortt
Mercury News

Good morning. How's your head?

Who's going to win the presidential election? The Olympic long jump?

Who knows. Today's crystal ball shows tech trends, and tech trends only.

OK, it's not a crystal ball. But we can see the future, because it's happening already.

The defining tech trend of 2004 probably will be related to the defining trend of 2003 -- the laptop's steady march to overtake the desktop as the face of the PC. In the summer, when back-to-school shoppers were beginning to browse, U.S. computer buyers started spending more money buying laptops than desktops.

In 2004, laptop prices should keep dropping. And that will mean laptops will claim an ever-larger share of our PC-buying dollars.

Laptop prices got as low as $800 this Christmas, and expect to see $750 or $700 bare-bones models in 2004. If memory prices spike, things could change -- but other evidence suggests that Intel, which heavily influences the price of laptop chips, will want to entice consumers to continue spending money on new computers.

One of the most expensive parts of a laptop is the screen. The glass for laptop LCDs (liquid crystal displays) is created in huge factories, many in South Korea -- and as manufacturers invent ways to cut more display screens from ever-larger pieces of glass, the overall price of LCDs comes down. In 2004, some larger manufacturing facilities will be cranking out glass -- and that should translate into lower laptop prices.

Bluetooth

Bluetooth, the wireless technology that replaces the cables on electronics, is set to have a big year in 2004. The companies that see the trends first -- companies like chip maker Broadcom and testing-equipment maker Agilent Technologies -- are confident of it. In the past, the companies said, manufacturers of products like keyboards and headsets had focused on perfecting one piece of the Bluetooth technology. But now they're ready to introduce full-fledged products. Once a few PCs start shipping with built-in Bluetooth keyboards and mice, watch skeptics start jumping onto the Bluetooth bandwagon in August, around back-to-school season. We'll be saying we told you so.